The updated projections show an additional 750 primary teachers and 500 secondary teachers are likely to be needed during 2025, which is around 2% of the regular teaching workforce. By 2027, this will shift to being a surplus of 230 primary teachers, whilst an additional 330 secondary teachers will still be required. 

The release of the 2024 report was delayed because of a Ministry teacher demand data error identified in the 2023 report. There has been a thorough review of forecasting methodology and assumptions, and the required changes have been made.

For the first time the Ministry’s report will also provide regional data to give a more detailed understanding of local supply challenges.

“The regional breakdown improves our understanding of supply and demand differences, allowing better tailoring of initiatives. It also supports discussions on teacher supply and the challenges faced at the local level with schools.” said Deputy Secretary - Education Workforce, Anna Welanyk.

To project how many teachers are needed over 3 years, the report considers the impacts of roll growth, Classroom Release Time (CRT), recruitment from overseas, and the number of people returning to the profession.

Key findings

Key findings in the 2024 report are:

• Returning teachers – 2,550 primary teachers and 2,240 secondary teachers as projected in 2025.
• New domestic trained teachers – 1,260 primary teachers and 860 secondary teachers as projected in 2025.
• Roll growth is higher than forecasted in the previous model meaning an additional 1000 primary teachers and 400 secondary teachers are needed to match the growth in 2025.
• New overseas teachers – 260 primary teachers and 270 secondary teachers as projected in 2025.
• The modelling shows that, at a national level, based on a medium level of supply projection, primary schools will be short of 750 teachers and secondary schools will be short by around 500 teachers in 2025.
• In primary education, Northland (-7%), Bay of Plenty (-7%) and Nelson (-7%) are facing the biggest challenges.
• In secondary education, Taranaki (-6%), Otago (-4%) and Auckland (-4) are facing the biggest challenges.
• Teaching retention rates have remained consistently strong at around 88% to 90% in recent years. This means the vast majority of teachers are remaining in the profession.
• Demand for teachers is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years.

Ongoing initiatives

To ease teacher supply shortages, there are ongoing initiatives to attract and support people to enter the teaching profession. These include:

• School Onsite Training Programme – 147 places taken up in 2024 providing teacher training options based in secondary schools.
• Various scholarships for people wanting to change their careers to teaching and those who are finishing university and wanting to complete teacher training.
• Changes to Immigration settings, the Overseas Relocation Grant to support overseas teachers moving to New Zealand, and the Overseas Finder Fee for schools to help meet recruitment costs.
• The Voluntary Bonding Scheme that encourages newly graduated teachers to teach in certain areas of need. Teachers can receive up to $17,500 if they stay at an eligible school for up to 5 years.
• The BeTTER Jobs Programme – 130 places annually that connect beginning and returning teachers with schools facing recruitment or retention challenges.
• Initial Teacher Education Course Finder Tool – provides information on all the teaching courses available in New Zealand so people can find a course that fits their needs more easily or move to New Zealand to teach.
• Funding to encourage former teachers to return to the profession as relief teachers and for teacher aides to upskill as Limited Authority to Teach (LAT) teachers.
• The investment into teacher supply is ongoing and we are expecting up to 1,000 primary and up to 1,200 secondary teachers to join the workforce during 2025.

“These initiatives are part of a targeted plan to build a strong pipeline of both domestically trained and overseas recruited teachers.” concluded Ms Welanyk.